Quantitative Methods
The whole Quantitative Methods reading in short lessons: the idea, the formula, one worked example with calculator keys, the exam traps and a quick check.
My deck- 01
Rates and ReturnsLocked: included in All Access
What an interest rate is made of, and every way the curriculum measures a return: holding period, arithmetic, geometric, harmonic, trimmed and winsorized means, money- vs time-weighted, annualised, continuously compounded, and gross, net, after-tax, real and leveraged returns.
- What an interest rate is made ofLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Holding period returnLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Arithmetic and geometric mean returnsLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Harmonic, trimmed and winsorized meansLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Money-weighted returnLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Time-weighted vs money-weighted returnVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Annualised and continuously compounded returnsVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Gross, net, after-tax, real and leveraged returnsVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- 02
Time Value of Money in FinanceLocked: included in All Access
How to price bonds, loans and shares as the present value of their cash flows, how to read implied returns and growth rates back out of market prices, and how cash flow additivity and no arbitrage set forward interest rates, forward exchange rates and option values.
- Present value and discount (zero-coupon) bondsLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Coupon bonds and perpetual bondsLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Level-payment instruments: mortgages and amortizing loansVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Valuing shares with dividend discount modelsLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Implied returns on bondsLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Required return, implied growth and the P/E ratioLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Cash flow additivity, no arbitrage and forward ratesLocked: included in All Access14 min
- No-arbitrage pricing of FX forwards and optionsLocked: included in All Access15 min
- 03
Statistical Measures of Asset ReturnsLocked: included in All Access
How to summarise a return series and judge what the summary is worth: where the data are centred and located, how widely they spread, what shape they have, and how two series move together, plus the pitfalls of each measure.
- Mean, median, mode and outliersLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Quantiles, box plots and their usesLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Range, mean absolute deviation, variance and standard deviationLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Target downside deviation and coefficient of variationVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Skewness and kurtosisVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access15 min
- Scatter plots, covariance and correlationLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Limits of correlation analysisLocked: included in All Access12 min
- 04
Probability Trees and Conditional ExpectationsLocked: included in All Access
Probability tools for investment decisions under uncertainty: expected value and dispersion of a random outcome, probability trees with conditional expectations, and Bayes' formula for updating a probability when new information arrives.
- Expected value, variance and standard deviationVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Conditional probability and probability treesLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Conditional expected values and variancesVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access15 min
- Bayes' formula: updating a probability with new informationVideo · 5 minLocked: included in All Access15 min
- Bayes in practice: diffuse priors, missing inputs and screening testsLocked: included in All Access14 min
- 05
Portfolio MathematicsLocked: included in All Access
How a portfolio's expected return and risk follow from its holdings: weights, covariance and correlation, the covariance matrix, diversification, covariance from a joint probability function, and Roy's safety-first rule for limiting the chance of falling below a minimum return.
- Portfolio expected return and varianceVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Covariance and correlationLocked: included in All Access13 min
- The covariance matrix and many-asset portfoliosLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Correlation and diversificationLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Covariance from a joint probability functionLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Shortfall risk and Roy's safety-first criterionLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Shortfall probability, the Sharpe ratio and VaRLocked: included in All Access12 min
- 06
Simulation MethodsLocked: included in All Access
Why asset prices are modelled as lognormal when continuously compounded returns are normal, how returns and volatility scale with time, and how Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrap resampling generate thousands of scenarios to measure risk and value complex securities.
- The lognormal distributionLocked: included in All Access13 min
- From continuous returns to lognormal pricesVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Estimating and annualising volatilityLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Monte Carlo simulation: what it is and what it is forLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Running a Monte Carlo simulation, step by stepLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Bootstrap resamplingLocked: included in All Access13 min
- 07
Estimation and InferenceLocked: included in All Access
How to learn about a population from a sample: the five main sampling methods and what they mean for sampling error, why sample size and a single population matter, the central limit theorem and the standard error of the sample mean, confidence intervals for the mean (z vs t), and bootstrap and jackknife resampling.
- Populations, samples and sampling errorLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Stratified and cluster samplingLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Convenience and judgmental sampling, and choosing a methodLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Sample size and mixing populationsLocked: included in All Access12 min
- The central limit theoremLocked: included in All Access13 min
- The standard error of the sample meanVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Confidence intervals for the meanLocked: included in All Access15 min
- Bootstrap and jackknife resamplingLocked: included in All Access14 min
- 08
Hypothesis TestingLocked: included in All Access
How to use a sample to judge a claim about a population: the six-step process, Type I and Type II errors, power, critical values and p-values, tests of one mean, two means (independent and paired) and variances (chi-square and F), and when a nonparametric test is the better choice.
- The six steps and stating the hypothesesLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Type I and Type II errors, significance and powerVideo · 5 minLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Critical values, p-values and the decision ruleVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Testing a single meanLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Two means: independent vs paired samplesVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Testing variances: chi-square and FVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Parametric vs nonparametric testsLocked: included in All Access12 min
- 09
Parametric and Non-Parametric Tests of IndependenceLocked: included in All Access
How to test whether two variables are related: the parametric t-test on a Pearson correlation, the non-parametric Spearman rank correlation when normality is doubtful or the data are ranks, and the chi-square test of independence for categorical data in a contingency table, including how to read standardized residuals.
- Parametric vs non-parametric tests, and correlation hypothesesLocked: included in All Access12 min
- The t-test for a Pearson correlationLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Sample size, p-values and many correlations at onceLocked: included in All Access13 min
- The Spearman rank correlation testVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Contingency tables and the chi-square test of independenceVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Interpreting the result: standardized residuals and mosaicsLocked: included in All Access12 min
- 10
Simple Linear RegressionLocked: included in All Access
Simple linear regression explains the variation in one variable using one other variable. You learn how least squares fits the line, how to read the coefficients, which assumptions must hold, how to judge the fit with ANOVA, \(R^2\), the F-test and the standard error of the estimate, how to test coefficients, how to build a prediction interval, and how log transformations handle curved relationships.
- The regression model and least squaresLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Interpreting coefficients, fitted values and residualsLocked: included in All Access12 min
- The four assumptions and residual plotsVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Sums of squares, \(R^2\), the ANOVA table and the SEEVideo · 6 minLocked: included in All Access14 min
- Testing the slope: t-test, correlation test and F-testVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access15 min
- Intercept tests, indicator variables and p-valuesLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Forecasts and prediction intervalsLocked: included in All Access13 min
- Functional forms: log-lin, lin-log and log-logVideo · 7 minLocked: included in All Access13 min
- 11
Introduction to Big Data TechniquesLocked: included in All Access
How fintech is changing investment analysis: what makes data 'Big', where alternative data come from and what can go wrong with them, how machine learning learns (and overfits), the main types of ML, how data scientists process and display data, and how text analytics and NLP turn words into investment signals.
- Fintech and the four Vs of Big DataLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Sources of Big Data and its challengesLocked: included in All Access13 min
- AI and how machine learning learnsLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Overfitting, underfitting and model fitLocked: included in All Access11 min
- Supervised, unsupervised and deep learningLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Data science: processing and visualisationLocked: included in All Access12 min
- Text analytics, NLP and data science toolsLocked: included in All Access14 min