Lesson 5 of 6 · 14 min

Running a Monte Carlo simulation, step by step

Every Monte Carlo valuation follows six steps: three to specify the simulation and three to run it, ending with the average of the discounted payoffs.

In short

  • Specify: (1) the quantity of interest and starting values, (2) a time grid of K sub-periods of length Δt\Delta t, (3) the model and the distributions of the key risk factors.
  • Run: (4) draw random values and convert them into a price path, (5) compute the payoff and discount it to today, (6) repeat for I trials and average.
  • A common price model: ΔP=μPpriorΔt+σPpriorZk\Delta P = \mu P_{\text{prior}}\Delta t + \sigma P_{\text{prior}} Z_k, where ZkZ_k is a standard normal draw, the key risk factor.
  • One trial = one path = one discounted payoff Ci,0C_{i,0}. The Monte Carlo value is the mean of all the Ci,0C_{i,0}.
  • Change the payoff rule in step 5 (average price, minimum price) and the same engine values a different claim.

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Running a Monte Carlo simulation, step by step · Simulation Methods