Lesson 1 of 6 · 13 min

The lognormal distribution

A variable is lognormal when its natural log is normal; that makes it never negative and skewed to the right, which is exactly how asset prices behave.

In short

  • Y is lognormal if ln⁡Y\ln Y is normally distributed. Equivalently, if X is normal, then Y=eXY = e^X is lognormal.
  • A lognormal variable is bounded below by zero and skewed to the right (it has a long right tail).
  • That shape fits asset prices, which cannot fall below zero. Returns are usually modelled as (approximately) normal.
  • Its two parameters are the mean μ\mu and variance σ2\sigma^2 of the associated normal distribution (of ln⁡Y\ln Y), not of Y itself.
  • The mean of Y is eμ+0.5σ2e^{\mu + 0.5\sigma^2}, which is above eμe^{\mu}: more volatility pushes the mean up.

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The lognormal distribution · Simulation Methods · CheapMocks