Lesson 2 of 6 · 14 min
From continuous returns to lognormal prices
Continuously compounded returns add up across periods, so the multi-period return is (at least approximately) normal and the price it produces is lognormal.
In short
- Continuously compounded return: ; the future price is .
- Over several periods, continuous returns simply add: is the sum of the one-period returns.
- i.i.d. returns are independent (the past does not predict the future) and identically distributed (stationary: same mean and variance every period).
- With i.i.d. returns, the mean and the variance grow in proportion to T; the standard deviation grows with .
- A sum of normal returns is normal; a sum of non-normal i.i.d. returns is approximately normal by the central limit theorem. Either way, is lognormal.
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