Lesson 7 of 8 · 14 min

Cash flow additivity, no arbitrage and forward rates

Values of cash flows at the same date can be added and subtracted, so economically equivalent strategies must cost the same; implied forward rates are the rates that make this true.

In short

  • Cash flow additivity: the PV of a stream = the sum of the PVs of its parts, once all are measured at the same date.
  • No arbitrage: prices must not allow a riskless profit with zero net investment (ignoring transaction costs).
  • Two strategies are economically equivalent when the PV of their cash flow differences is zero.
  • The implied forward rate solves (1+r2)2=(1+r1)(1+F1,1)(1+r_2)^2 = (1+r_1)(1+F_{1,1}); it is the breakeven reinvestment rate.
  • If a quoted forward rate differs from the implied one, borrow at the cheap rate and lend at the dear one.
  • Upward-sloping spot rates: F1,1>r2>r1F_{1,1} > r_2 > r_1. A rise in F1,1F_{1,1} signals expected future rate rises.
  • Longer horizons chain the same way: (1+r3)3=(1+r1)(1+F1,1)(1+F2,1)=(1+r1)(1+F1,2)2(1+r_3)^3 = (1+r_1)(1+F_{1,1})(1+F_{2,1}) = (1+r_1)(1+F_{1,2})^2.

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Cash flow additivity, no arbitrage and forward rates · Time Value of Money in Finance