Lesson 1 of 7 · 13 min

Portfolio expected return and variance

A portfolio's expected return is a plain weighted average of its holdings, but its risk is not, because risk also depends on how the holdings move together.

In short

  • Portfolio weights are each holding's share of the portfolio's market value; they sum to 1.
  • Expected return of the portfolio = weighted average of the holdings' expected returns. Nothing else matters for it.
  • Portfolio variance measures expected risk: the expected squared deviation of the portfolio return from its mean.
  • Two-asset variance = w12σ12+w22σ22+2w1w2Cov12w_1^2\sigma_1^2 + w_2^2\sigma_2^2 + 2w_1w_2\text{Cov}_{12}: two own-risk terms plus a co-movement term.
  • Standard deviation is the square root of variance and is quoted in the same units as returns.
  • Portfolio standard deviation is at most the weighted average of the holdings' standard deviations; the gap is the benefit of diversification.

Unlock this lesson free for 7 days

Create a free account to get 7 days of full access — every lesson, video, flashcard, mock and the question bank. No card needed.

Portfolio expected return and variance · Portfolio Mathematics