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Lesson 2 of 7 · 13 min

Perceived value, investor and issuer actions, and value ranges

Every investor holds a different perceived value for the same share; when perceived value and price diverge, investors trade and issuers repurchase or issue shares, and analysts express value as ranges and scenarios rather than one number.

In short

  • The market price is observed; intrinsic value (the true present value of expected cash flows) is unobservable; each investor's estimate of it is a perceived value.
  • Perceived values come from three approaches: naive (story-based), relative and absolute (fundamental) valuation.
  • Investors buy undervalued shares (Pt<IVtP_t < IV_t) and sell or short overvalued ones; issuers repurchase shares they think are undervalued and issue shares they think are overvalued.
  • If the price converges to value, the expected holding period return is (IVt−Pt)/Pt(IV_t - P_t)/P_t; it fails if the model was wrong or bad news arrives.
  • Analysts compare a price range with value ranges, often weighting scenarios by probability, and show them in a football field (floating bar) chart.

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Perceived value, investor and issuer actions, and value ranges · Introduction to Equity Valuation