Lesson 7 of 8 · All lessons in this module
- Why analyse an industry, and the five steps
- Defining an industry and grouping companies
- Industry size and the character of its growth
- Profitability, market share trends and concentration (HHI)Video lesson
- Industry structure: Porter's Five ForcesVideo lesson
- External influences: PESTLE analysis
- Integrated case: from an industry survey to a forecast
- Competitive strategy and positioning
Lesson 7 of 8 · 15 min
Integrated case: from an industry survey to a forecast
An industry survey is a chain of judgements: characterise the history (growth or mature, cyclical or defensive), read the structure and new entrants, rate the five forces, and only then turn the label into a growth range for one company.
In short
- Compare the industry's growth with a broad economic measure through expansions and a downturn: growth in line with GDP over the cycle means mature; amplified swings mean cyclical.
- A top-N share and its change characterise structure: low share and rising means fragmented but consolidating.
- A new entrant's sudden share gain is a disruptive threat; one data series cannot show that penetration has peaked.
- Rate each of the five forces with a reason from the exhibit, then say what the pattern implies for industry profitability.
- A single-line company in a mature, moderately cyclical industry is expected to grow about in line with GDP, not far above it.
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