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Lesson 2 of 10 · 13 min

Strategy over the life cycle and addressable markets

What a company's strategy should look like depends on its life-cycle stage: startups prove a business model, growth firms are judged on the size of the market they can reach, declining firms cut, restructure or reinvent.

In short

  • Startups have little revenue, negative cash flow and few assets. Strategy centres on innovation, partnerships and raising equity; the risk of failure is very high.
  • Growth firms (often disruptors using business-model innovation) are analysed by sizing their market: total addressable market (TAM) → serviceable market (focus and geography) → obtainable market (current scale and strategy).
  • A top-down revenue forecast projects the three market sizes and the firm's share of its obtainable market, year by year.
  • Declining firms: revenue falling or growing well below nominal GDP or peers, often with excess capacity that intensifies rivalry. Typical responses: cost management, restructuring, downsizing or exiting, sometimes reinvention.
  • Creative destruction threatens firms at every stage: new products make old ones obsolete.

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Strategy over the life cycle and addressable markets · Company Analysis: Past, Present, and Future